Global temperature evolution 1979–2010 [pdf]

 

Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Received 27 September 2011Accepted for publication 16 November 2011Published 6 December 2011Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/6/044022
Abstract
We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS,NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr

1
. When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Ni˜no/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability), the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly toEl Ni˜no/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series, the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010.

1. Introduction
The prime indicator of global warming is,by definition,global mean temperature. Time series of global temperature show awell-known rise since the early 20th century and most notably since the late 1970s. This widespread temperature increase is corroborated by a range of warming-related impacts:shrinking mountain glaciers, accelerating ice loss from icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica, shrinking Arctic sea ice extent, sea level rise, and a number of well-documented biospheric changes like earlier bud burst and blossoming times in spring (IPCC2007). Despite the unequivocal signs of global warming, somepublic (and to a much lesser extent, scientific) debate has arisen over discrepancies between the different global temperature records, and over the exact magnitude of, and possible recent changes in, warming rates (Peterson andBaringer2009). To clarify these issues, we analyze the fiveleading quasi-global temperature data sets up to and including the year 2010. We focus on the period since 1979, since satellite microwave data are available and the warming trend since that time is at least approximately linear.Much of the variability during that time span can be related to three known causes of short-term temperature variations: El Ni˜no/southern oscillation (ENSO, an internal quasi-oscillatory mode of the ocean–atmosphere system)(Newell and Weare1976, Angell1981,Trenberth
et al
2002), volcanic eruptions (IPCC2007), and solar variations including the solar cycle (IPCC2007,Lean and Rind 2008,2009). This complicates both comparison and trend analysis of the temperature records. Since independent measures of these variations are available, their influence canto a large extent be removed, leading to adjusted, less noisy global temperature data sets. Therefore we will remove the influence of these factors on the temperature data sets, not only to isolate the longer-term changes, but also to identify whether different data sets show meaningful differences in their response to these factors. The influence of exogenous factors will be approximated by multiple regression of temperature against ENSO, volcanic influence, total solar irradiance (TSI) and a linear time trend to approximate theglobal warming that has occurred during the 32 years subject to analysis.Lean and Rind (2008)performed a multivariate correlation analysis for the period 1889–2006 using the CRU temperature data (Brohan
et al
2006), and found that they could explain 76% of the temperature variance over this period from anthropogenic forcing, El Ni˜no, volcanic aerosols and solar variability. The long-term warming trendalmost exclusively stems from anthropogenic forcing.[….]

 

Advertisements

About irmedeaca


One response to “Global temperature evolution 1979–2010 [pdf]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Well Balanced Blog

Take Control of Your Own Health!

Έγκλημα και Τιμωρία/Crime and Punishment/Crime et Châtiment/Delitto e castigo/Преступление и наказание

CRIME DOES NOT PAY... PLUS, THE BUTLER DID IT! AND REMEMBER: WHAT DOESN'T KILL YOU, WILL -MOST LIKELY- TRY AGAIN... AND DON'T FORGET: TODAY IS A GOOD DAY FOR SOMEONE ELSE TO DIE.

BanTheBBC Blog

A constant reminder that life would be so much better without the BBC's TV Licence Gestapo

Healthy At Any Age

Welcome to June Rousso's Blog !

iGlinavos

Thoughts of a recovering leftist

Scottish Gaelic

Word a Day

NEO INKA - ΣΕ ΠΡΟΣΤΑΤΕΥΕΙ, ΔΥΝΑΜΩΣΕ ΤΟ!!!

ΓΙΝΕ Ο ΕΠΟΜΕΝΟΣ ΚΡΙΚΟΣ ΣΤΟ ΔΙΚΤΥΟ.

Talk of the Tail

"Tails" from pets searching for their forever home.

ultimatemindsettoday

A great WordPress.com site

Are You Finished Yet?

Alea Jacta Est

Watts Up With That?

The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change

Levi Quackenboss

Putting the boss in quack.

KXAN.com

Austin News & Weather - Austin Texas, Round Rock, TX

Unstrange Mind

Remapping My World

psychinfo.gr

ΛΙΝΑ ΨΟΥΝΗ • psouni@gmail.com • www.psychinfo.gr

Wee Ginger Dug

Biting the hand of Project Fear

QuitTrain®

Quit Smoking & Take Your Freedom Back!

%d bloggers like this: